“The only constant is change.” (Heraclitus) Stock markets everywhere have been on a bit of a rollercoaster in 2025. Uncertainty around interest rates, geopolitical instability, and the unpredictability of US trade policy have made for a bumpy ride. For any investor, these constant dips and gains can feel unsettling, even irrational. But before labelling…
2025’s perfect storm began with President Trump exhibiting his trademark unpredictability, announcing sweeping tariffs that sent markets into a tailspin in April. When tariff fears peaked in April, the S&P 500 sold off as much as 17.8%, while the Nasdaq suffered an even steeper 23.4% decline from its highs. Oil futures fell to four-year lows…
“The only certainty is that nothing is certain.” (Pliny the Elder) For decades, US Treasuries (government bonds) and the US dollar have been the world’s primary safe-haven assets. Investors have been able to rely on them to hold their value due to America’s status as the world’s leading democracy, with deep, liquid markets and a…
April was characterised by intense market upheaval as President Trump set what UBS economist Paul Donovan describes as an erratic “threaten-retreat-threaten-retreat” cycle in motion. Trump’s reversal of previous extreme policy decisions highlighted that economic realities are beginning to constrain the administration’s actions. Now you see it, now you don’t tariff turmoil On April 2, “Liberation…
Since returning to office in January 2025, President Donald Trump has implemented a sweeping series of tariff measures – the latest of which is a 30% tariff on South African exports to the US. These decisions have sent shockwaves throughout the global economy and created significant market uncertainty. At the latest SA Reserve Bank meeting,…
Europe and South Africa have turned the tables on the US stock market, outperforming them in February and year-to-date due to signs of a slowing US economy, trade policy uncertainty and a rotation out of tech stocks. Trump-related investor optimism has dissipated, leaving the US stock market in the red since he took office. While…
January has been a volatile month for global and SA equities. Stock markets experienced a “Trump bump” after his inauguration on January 20, driven by expectations of market-friendly policies. However, equities retreated to end the month with modest gains as investors weighed tariff uncertainties, shifting interest rate expectations, and growing concerns about the sustainability of…
2024’s rally sets a high bar to beat The S&P 500 last year experienced its best two-year stretch since 1998, surging 23% in 2024 alone and breaking above 6,000 points. However, momentum slowed considerably in the final quarter as Trump’s election victory and a more hawkish interest rate outlook introduced new uncertainties to the world…
While initial enthusiasm surrounding Trump’s likely market-friendly economic policies drove the S&P 500 index above 6,000 points for the first time, investors are now carefully weighing the opportunities and risks ahead. South Africa’s JSE All Share Index fell behind, moving sideways during the month. Treasury pick calms some market nerves Markets generally welcomed Trump’s selection…
Stock markets took a breather in the second half of October in anticipation of the US elections. The S&P 500 flattened out in the second half of October, leaving it less than 1% higher for the month, while the SA All Share Index gained 0.5%. Both markets have, however, notched up healthy double-digit gains for…
It’s too close to call, so sit tight The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is running neck and neck, with Harris seen as slightly ahead after being widely considered the winner of their September debate. A recent CNN poll found Harris leading by a percentage point, coming in at 48% versus Trump’s 47%.…
