Europe and South Africa have turned the tables on the US stock market, outperforming them in February and year-to-date due to signs of a slowing US economy, trade policy uncertainty and a rotation out of tech stocks. Trump-related investor optimism has dissipated, leaving the US stock market in the red since he took office. While…
January has been a volatile month for global and SA equities. Stock markets experienced a “Trump bump” after his inauguration on January 20, driven by expectations of market-friendly policies. However, equities retreated to end the month with modest gains as investors weighed tariff uncertainties, shifting interest rate expectations, and growing concerns about the sustainability of…
2024’s rally sets a high bar to beat The S&P 500 last year experienced its best two-year stretch since 1998, surging 23% in 2024 alone and breaking above 6,000 points. However, momentum slowed considerably in the final quarter as Trump’s election victory and a more hawkish interest rate outlook introduced new uncertainties to the world…
While initial enthusiasm surrounding Trump’s likely market-friendly economic policies drove the S&P 500 index above 6,000 points for the first time, investors are now carefully weighing the opportunities and risks ahead. South Africa’s JSE All Share Index fell behind, moving sideways during the month. Treasury pick calms some market nerves Markets generally welcomed Trump’s selection…
Stock markets took a breather in the second half of October in anticipation of the US elections. The S&P 500 flattened out in the second half of October, leaving it less than 1% higher for the month, while the SA All Share Index gained 0.5%. Both markets have, however, notched up healthy double-digit gains for…
It’s too close to call, so sit tight The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is running neck and neck, with Harris seen as slightly ahead after being widely considered the winner of their September debate. A recent CNN poll found Harris leading by a percentage point, coming in at 48% versus Trump’s 47%.…
SA and US interest rate cuts on the cards in September If all goes well, SA and US borrowers can look forward to an at least 25-basis point (bp) reduction in interest rates, spelling the beginning of a declining interest rate cycle. There are hopes that one or both central banks will announce a bumper…
Magnificent Seven come tumbling down The Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Amazon, Google-parent Alphabet, Nvidia, Facebook-parent Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Tesla) have been responsible for the lion’s share of the US bull market in equities since late 2022. So much so that a new term has made its way into market parlance: “bad breadth”. It refers…
GNU 2.0 the best possible outcome for investors South Africa’s second Government of National Unity in three decades heralds good things to come for the country and investors. Financially speaking, it is the best outcome we can hope for in a challenging political environment. Dominated by the ANC and the Democratic Alliance, the GNU 2.0…
Investors pin their hopes on an investor-friendly outcome The elections have been and gone, and now we wait to hear the nature of the coalition that the ANC will form after not just losing its majority but only managing to muster a 40% share of the votes. A lot has been written about the potential…